Development Status and Future Trends of Energy Storage Industry.
① Development status of energy storage industry
According to incomplete statistics from the Global Energy Storage Project Pool of the China Energy Research Association Energy Storage Special Committee/Zhongguancun Energy Storage Industry Technology Alliance (CNESA), as of the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of power storage projects in operation worldwide is 289.2GW, with an annual growth rate of 21.9%. The proportion of cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage has decreased significantly, * * below 70%, a decrease of 12.3 percentage points compared to the same period in 2022. The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage has reached 91.3GW, nearly twice that of the same period in 2022. Among them, lithium-ion batteries continue to grow rapidly, with an annual growth rate exceeding 100%.
According to incomplete statistics from the CNESA Global Energy Storage Database, as of the end of 2023, the cumulative installed capacity of power storage projects in operation in China is 86.5GW, accounting for 30% of the total global market size and a year-on-year increase of 45%. The cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage is also below 60%, a decrease of 17.7 percentage points compared to the same period in 2022; The cumulative installed capacity of new energy storage has exceeded 30GW, with a power scale of 34.5GW and an energy scale of 74.5GWh. Both the power scale and energy scale have increased by more than 150% year-on-year.
② Future Development Trends of Energy Storage Industry
Energy storage is a strong support for building a new type of power system. With the maturity of energy storage technology and the gradual decrease in costs, the demand for installing energy storage systems among industrial and commercial users is gradually increasing. In scenarios such as shopping malls or charging stations, the start stop time of loads is relatively concentrated, often leading to transformer overload; In industrial production, situations where high load start stop results in exceeding demand also occur; In remote areas or islands without a stable power grid, energy storage systems can be installed to replace diesel generators or support stable loads, improving the stability of power supply.
From the perspective of users, China's electricity substitution rate will further increase, including the integration of electric vehicles, indicating that there is still room for growth in electricity consumption. From the perspective of power supply and grid, new energy represented by wind and solar energy has intermittent and fluctuating characteristics. The large-scale integration of new energy will bring great pressure to the grid, and independent energy storage stations are becoming the mainstream form of high-power energy storage products.
Therefore, it is the trend for industry, commerce, and users to equip energy storage and high-power energy storage products to regulate the balance of electricity supply and demand. The specific analysis of each product is as follows:
A. Industrial and commercial energy storage products
At present, domestic industrial and commercial energy storage is mainly concentrated in regions with high peak valley price differences and developed industrial and commercial sectors such as Jiangsu, Guangdong, Beijing, and Zhejiang. However, in the past two summers, load center regions such as East China and South China have been affected by peak summer demand and orderly summer usage, resulting in power shortages for some industrial and commercial users. At the same time, driven by peak and valley electricity pricing policies and the decrease in energy storage system costs, the demand for industrial and commercial users to deploy energy storage is gradually emerging.
B. Household energy storage products
The demand for household energy storage is concentrated in high electricity price countries, mainly the United States, Germany, Australia, and Japan. These countries and regions are accelerating the green transformation of energy, and household photovoltaics are expected to continue to receive greater policy support. At the same time, the Russia-Ukraine conflict further exacerbated the high fluctuation of energy prices. In the second half of 2021, the wholesale price of European electricity continued to rise rapidly, and the new contract price of European residents began to rise significantly, which promoted the rapid growth of overseas household demand for energy storage.
C. High power energy storage products
The high-power energy storage product project (power supply side and grid side) is the main installed capacity in China. According to data from Energy Storage Headlines, a total of 251 projects in China's energy storage market were tendered for the year 2023, with a total scale of 99.78 GWh, covering EPC, PC, energy storage systems, battery systems, energy storage cells, etc. China National Electric Equipment, National Energy Group, China National Nuclear Corporation, China Energy Engineering Corporation, State Power Investment Corporation, China General Nuclear Power Corporation, Huadian Group, Huaneng Group, Datang Group, and Southern Power Grid completed the 56.05 GWh energy storage procurement tender work. From the perspective of bidding project types, independent energy storage projects may become the mainstream type of energy storage installation in China in the future, injecting new growth momentum into the domestic energy storage market.
D. Energy storage inverter
The development speed of the energy storage industry largely determines the development speed of the energy storage inverter industry. From the perspective of hardware and production costs, the cost proportion of PCS in energy storage systems decreases as the power and capacity of the energy storage system increase. With the rapid expansion of small and medium-sized energy storage applications such as user side and microgrids, system efficiency becomes increasingly important in situations where cost reduction cannot be achieved through scale. The importance of PCS in improving system efficiency through improving the overall efficiency of energy storage systems and ensuring power quality becomes more apparent. The marginal benefits brought about by the iteration and innovation of related technologies are gradually increasing, and the development speed of the energy storage inverter industry will further accelerate on the existing basis.
In the stage of exploring commercial scale under the promotion of the "dual carbon" target policy, demand growth is driven by the grid side and power generation side, which in turn drives the development of the energy storage industry and promotes the development of the PCS industry. Under the demand for cost reduction and efficiency improvement, PCS technology is also developing towards high power.
